I-Metal Packaging Industry Inflection Point Iyasondela, Inzuzo Yezimboni Kulindeleke Ukuba Iqhubeke Nokululama

Imboni yokupakishwa kwensimbi iye yabhekana nokukhula okuqhubekayo komthamo eminyakeni embalwa edlule kanye nenzuzo enciphayo. Njengamanje, ukuzimisela kwemboni ukwandisa ukukhiqizwa kuye kwaba buthaka kakhulu. Ngokuphothulwa kokwakhiwa kwamandla embonini, ukugqugquzelwa kokuhlanganiswa nokuhlanganiswa kanye nokuthengwa kwezinkampani eziholayo zasekhaya, kanye nokwehla kwamanani ezinto ezingavuthiwe, umkhawulo wenzuzo yemboni yokupakisha ngensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokusimama.

Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024, nakuba ukukhula kwemali engenayo bekukubi ngenxa yesidingo esibuthakathaka sabathengi, inzuzo yaba ngcono ngenxa yokwehla kwamanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokwenza kahle kwesakhiwo samandla. Isibonelo, imajini ephelele ye-Auerijin engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024 yayingu-17.82%, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-1.88 unyaka nonyaka, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwehla kwezinto zokusetshenziswa. Isilinganiso senani lentengo ye-tinplate engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2024 yayingu-6,546 yuan/ton, phansi ngamaphesenti angu-4.7 ngamaphuzu unyaka nonyaka. Izintengo ze-aluminium nazo zehla zisuka phezulu ku-24,240 yuan/ton ngo-2021 zaya ku-19,695 yuan/ton ngo-September 23, 2024. Ngokuphothulwa kokwakhiwa kwamandla embonini kanye nokukhuthazwa kokuhlanganiswa nokuhlanganiswa kwezinkampani eziyinhloko, umkhawulo wenzuzo yemboni yokupakisha yensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhula, imboni kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhula.

Ngo-2023, amabhizinisi angaphezu kobukhulu obunqunyiwe embonini yokupakisha yensimbi yaseShayina azozuza isamba semali engenayo engama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-150.562 ebhizinisini lawo eliyinhloko, okubalelwa ku-13% yenani eliphelele lomkhiqizo womkhakha wokupakisha, osemuva kakhulu ezingeni lomhlaba wonke lika-45% -50%. Amathini okuphuzwayo amabili nantathu abe nenani eliphakeme kakhulu. Njengamanje, ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo samathini aneziqephu ezintathu ngokuyisisekelo kuyalingana. Ngo-2022, ukukhiqizwa kwemboni yamathini amathathu yaseChina kuzoba amathini ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-31.05 , futhi isidingo sizoba ngamathini ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-30.53. Ngenxa yobudlelwano obuzinzile bokubambisana phakathi kwezinkampani ezinkulu zeziphuzo nabahlinzeki, iphethini ehamba phambili yokupakishwa kwensimbi izinzile. Ngaphansi kwesizinda sesakhiwo samakhasimende esizinzile kanye nephethini yomkhakha, intengo emaphakathi yakudala yasembonini yezinkampani ezintathu zamathini ibonise ithrendi yokuzinza nokukhula eminyakeni yakamuva.

Ngokombono wemboni yokupakisha yase-US, ukukhula okuhamba phambili kwashesha futhi inzuzo yaba ngcono ngemva kokuhlanganiswa nokutholwa. Ngokusho kwe-Huafu Securities, emzuliswaneni wokuqala wenkathi yokuhlanganisa (1990-2000), i-Crown yathola inani lokupakisha lensimbi yokudla, izinhloso zokupakisha zepulasitiki; Emzuliswaneni wesibili wenkathi yokuhlanganisa (2000-2016), iBhunu laqala ukusheshisa ijubane lokuhlangana nokuthengwa, okuqondiswe kakhulu ezinkampanini zasekhaya ze-aluminium . Ukukhula kwemali yamaBhunu ngonyaka kufinyelele kumaphesenti angu-6.4 kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2023, kusuka kumaphesenti angu-4 ngaphambili, kanti ama-Crown angu-5.5 ekhulwini kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2023 akhuphuke esuka ku-2 ekhulwini ngaphambili. Ukwengeza, ukuhlomula ekuhlanganisweni kwezimboni, isikhungo senzuzo yokusebenza kwamaCrown sikhuphuke sisuka ku-8% saya ku-10% emzuliswaneni wokuqala wokuhlanganisa, kanti isikhungo senzuzo sokusebenza seBoer sisonke sikhuphuke sisuka ku-6% saya ku-9% emzuliswaneni wesibili wokuhlanganisa.

Ikakhulukazi, thatha iBoer njengesibonelo, i-gross profit margin kanye ne-net profit margin centre cishe ku-20% no-5% ngokulandelanayo eminyakeni yamuva. Ngo-2023, imali engenayo yephakeji yesiphuzo se-Bohr izoba ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11.32, kanye nesamba semaliji kanye nesamba semali engu-19.0% no-5.1% ngokulandelana, kanye ne-ROE engu-19%. Ngenkathi i-ROE yabaholi bokufakwa kwensimbi yasekhaya ikububanzi obungu-6% -11%, likhona igumbi elihle lokuthuthukiswa uma liqhathaniswa ne-Bohr.

I-Huafu Securities yabonisa ukuthi ngemva komzuliswano wokuqala wokuhlanganiswa kwasekhaya kusukela ngo-2016 kuya ku-2019, lezi zimboni ezimbili zingakha kancane kancane i-Baosteel emaphaketheni, i-Auruijin, i-COfCO yokupakisha, iphethini yokuncintisana eyinhloko emithathu, kodwa igebe lokwabelana phakathi komunye nomunye lincane, uma ukutholwa kokulingana kwe-COfCO emaphaketheni, ukusula imbonini yokuthuthukisa ukuthuthukiswa, ukuthuthukiswa kwemboni kuzoba ngcono nakakhulu ukuze uthole inzuzo. Ngo-2023, umkhawulo wenzuzo yokusebenza wezinkampani ezinkulu zaseShayina zokupakisha insimbi izoba phakathi kuka-4% no-7%, okufana nesilinganiso senzuzo yokusebenza yezinkampani zaphesheya kwezilwandle ngaphambi kokuhlanganiswa, kanti ngemva komzuliswano wokuqala wokuhlanganiswa, umkhawulo wenzuzo yokusebenza yebhizinisi lokupakisha lensimbi lezinkampani zaphesheya ngo-2004 lizoba phakathi kuka-9% no-12% wokuhlanganiswa kwebhizinisi, ngemuva kokuhlanganiswa kwensimbi kwesibili no-12%. zezinkampani zaphesheya kwezilwandle ngo-2023 zizoba phakathi kuka-9% no-17%.Ngokwaleli phuzu lokubuka iminyaka engu-2025 yemboni yokupakisha insimbi iyonke