Metal Packaging Industry Inflection Point Rebɛn, Wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ Industry Mfaso bɛkɔ so ayɛ yiye

Nnwuma a wɔyɛ dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho no anya ntrɛwmu a ɛkɔ so wɔ wɔn tumi mu wɔ mfe kakraa a atwam no mu na mfaso a wonya no so atew. Mprempren, ɔpɛ a nnwumakuw no wɔ sɛ wɔbɛtrɛw nneɛma a wɔyɛ mu no ayɛ mmerɛw kɛse. Bere a wɔawie nnwumayɛbea ahoɔden adansi, nkabom ne nkabom ne nnwumakuw atitiriw a wɔbɛtɔ wɔ ɔman no mu no ho nkuran, ne nneɛma a wɔde yɛ nneɛma bo a ɛkɔ fam no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ mfaso a ɛwɔ dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwumayɛ mu no bɛkɔ so ayɛ yiye.

Wɔ afe 2024 fã a ɛdi kan no mu no, ɛwom sɛ na sika a wɔnya no nkɔanim nyɛ papa ɛnam adetɔfoɔ ahiadeɛ a ɛyɛ mmerɛ nyinaa nti, mfasoɔ no nyaa nkɔsoɔ ɛnam nneɛma a wɔde yɛ adwuma boɔ a ɛkɔɔ fam ne tumi nhyehyɛeɛ a wɔayɛ no yie nti. Sɛ nhwɛsoɔ no, Auerijin sika a wɔnyaeɛ wɔ afe 2024 fã a ɛdi kan no mu no yɛ 17.82%, ɛboroo ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 1.88 afe biara, titire no ɛnam nneɛma a wɔde yɛ adwuma a ɛso atew nti. Sɛ wɔkyekyɛ mu a, tinplate boɔ wɔ afe 2024 fã a ɛdi kan no mu yɛ yuan 6,546/ton, na ɛbaa fam ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 4.7 afe biara. Aluminium bo nso kɔɔ fam firii ne sorokɔ a ɛyɛ yuan 24,240/ton wɔ afe 2021 mu kɔɔ 19,695 yuan/ton wɔ September 23, 2024. Ɛnam sɛ wɔawie nnwumayɛfoɔ tumi adansiɛ na wɔahyɛ nnwumakuo mpaninfoɔ nkabom ne nkabom ho nkuran nti, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ mfasoɔ a ɛwɔ dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwumayɛ mu no bɛkɔ so ayɛ yie, na wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nnwuma no boɔ bɛkɔ soro yɛ ntɛmntɛm.

Wɔ afe 2023 mu no, nnwuma a ɛboro kɛseɛ a wɔahyɛ wɔ China dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwumayɛ mu no bɛnya sika a ɛyɛ yuan ɔpepepem 150.562 afiri wɔn adwuma titire no mu, a ɛyɛ bɛyɛ 13% wɔ nneɛma a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma nyinaa boɔ mu, a ɛda so ara di akyi koraa wɔ wiase nyinaa 45%-50%. Nsuo a ewo - ne mmiɛnsa na ɛyɛɛ dodoɔ a ɛkyɛn so. Mprempren, nea wɔde ma ne nea wɔhwehwɛ a wɔde yɛ nkankyee abiɛsa no kari pɛ titiriw. Wɔ afe 2022 mu no, China nnwuma a wɔde toa nneɛma abiɛsa ayɛ no bɛyɛ bɛyɛ nkotoku ɔpepepem 31.05 , na nea wɔhwehwɛ no bɛyɛ nkotoku ɔpepepem 30.53. Esiane biakoyɛ abusuabɔ a ɛyɛ den a ɛda nnwumakuw akɛse a wɔyɛ anonne ne wɔn a wɔde ma ntam nti, dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho nhyehyɛe a edi kan no gyina hɔ pintinn kakra. Wɔ adetɔfo nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ den ne nnwuma nhyehyɛe akyi no, sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, nnwumakuw a wɔde nneɛma abiɛsa ayɛ bo a ɛkɔ soro wɔ adwumayɛbea hɔ no ada su a ɛyɛ den na ɛkɔ soro adi wɔ nnansa yi mfe mu.

Sɛ yɛhwɛ U.S. nneɛma a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwuma no a, nkɔso a edi kan no yɛɛ ntɛmntɛm na mfaso a wonyae no nyaa nkɔso wɔ nkabom ne adetɔ akyi. Sɛnea Huafu Securities kyerɛ no, wɔ nkabom bere a edi kan (1990-2000) mu no, Crown nyaa nnuan dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma dodow bi, plastic a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho botae ahorow; Wɔ nkabom berɛ a ɛtɔ so mmienu (2000-2016) mu no, Boer hyɛɛ aseɛ yɛɛ ntɛmntɛm wɔ nkabom ne adetɔ mu, a wɔde wɔn ani sii mpɔtam hɔ aluminum toa nnwuma so titire. Boer afe afe sika a wɔnya no nkɔanim duu ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 6.4 firi afe 2016 kɔsi afe 2023, ɛboroo ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 4 a atwam no, berɛ a Crown ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 5.5 firi afe 2016 kɔsi afe 2023 no kɔɔ soro firi ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu mmienu a atwam no. Bio nso, ɛnam mfasoɔ a ɛfiri nnwuma a wɔaka abom mu nti, Crown adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ a ɛwɔ mu no kɔɔ soro firii 8% kɔɔ 10% wɔ nkabom no fã a ɛdi kan no mu, na Boer adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ a ɛwɔ mu nyinaa kɔɔ soro firii 6% kɔɔ 9% wɔ nkabom no fã a ɛtɔ so mmienu no mu.

Titiriw no, fa Boer sɛ nhwɛsoɔ, ne mfasoɔ nyinaa ne mfasoɔ a ɛfiri mu no mfimfini bɛyɛ 20% ne 5% wɔ nnansa yi mfeɛ mu. Wɔ afe 2023 mu no, Bohr anonneɛ a wɔde ahyɛ mu no sika a wɔbɛnya no bɛyɛ U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 11.32, na sika a wɔbɛnya nyinaa ne mfasoɔ a wɔbɛnya no bɛyɛ 19.0% ne 5.1%, na ROE bɛyɛ 19%. Bere a ROE a ɛwɔ afie mu dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma mu akannifo no wɔ 6%-11% no, kwan kɛse wɔ hɔ a wobetumi anya nkɔso sɛ wɔde toto Bohr ho a.

Huafu Securities kyerɛɛ sɛ akyi a edi kan round of fie nkabom fi 2016 kosi 2019, abien no betumi industry nkakrankakra hyehyɛɛ Baosteel packaging, Auruijin, COfCO packaging, abiɛsa titiriw akansi nhyehyɛe, nanso kyɛfa nsonsonoe a ɛda wɔn ho wɔn ho ntam no sua, sɛ equity a wonya ma COfCO packaging awiei koraa no landing, nnwuma nhyehyɛe no bɛyɛ pefee kɛse, nkɔso a edi kan nne, a ɛma mfaso nya nkɔso. Wɔ afe 2023 mu no, China dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nnwuma akɛseɛ no adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ bɛyɛ 4% kɔsi 7%, a ɛte sɛ amannɔne nnwumakuo a wɔde nneɛma gu mu no nyinaa adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ ansa na wɔaka abom, berɛ a wɔ nkabom no fã a ɛdi kan no akyi no, adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ a ɛwɔ dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwuma mu wɔ amannɔne nnwumakuo mu wɔ afe 2004 mu no bɛyɛ 9% ne 12% ntam, wɔ nkabom a ɛtɔ so mmienu akyi, The operating margin of metal packaging business of overseas companies wɔ afe 2023 mu no bɛyɛ 9% ne 17%.From saa kwan yi so 2025 mfeɛ a metal packaging adwumayɛkuo no nyinaa