Metal Packaging Industry Inflection Point rebɛn, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nnwuma mu mfaso bɛkɔ so ayɛ yiye .

Nneɛma a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwuma no anya tumi a wɔtrɛw mu bere nyinaa wɔ mfe kakraa a atwam no mu na mfaso a ɛso retew. Mprempren, ɔpɛ a nnwumakuw no wɔ sɛ wɔbɛtrɛw nneɛma a wɔyɛ mu no ayɛ mmerɛw kɛse. Bere a wɔawie nnwumayɛ mu tumi a wɔde yɛ adwuma no, nnwumakuw a wodi kan wɔ ɔman no mu a wɔbɛka abom na wɔaka abom na wɔagye wɔn, ne nneɛma a wɔde yɛ nneɛma bo a ɛso atew no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ mfaso a ɛwɔ dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma so no so no bɛkɔ so asan ayɛ yiye.

Wɔ afe 2024 fã a edi kan no mu no, ɛwom sɛ sika a wonyae no mu nkɔanim no nyɛ papa esiane adetɔfo ahwehwɛde a ɛyɛ mmerɛw nyinaa nti de, nanso mfaso a wonyae no nyaa nkɔso esiane nneɛma a wɔde yɛ adwuma no bo a ɛrekɔ fam ne tumi a wɔde yɛ nhyehyɛe no yiye nti. Sɛ nhwɛso no, Auerijin a ɛwɔ afe 2024 fã a edi kan no mu no yɛ 17.82%, na ɛboroo ɔha biara mu nkyem 1.88 afe biara, titiriw esiane nneɛma a wɔde yɛ nneɛma a wɔde yɛ nneɛma no a ɛso atew nti. Sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, tinplate bo a ɛwɔ afe 2024 fã a edi kan no mu no yɛ yuan/ton 6,546, na ɛbaa fam ɔha biara mu nkyem 4.7 afe biara. Aluminium bo nso so tewee fii yuan/ton 24,240 a ɛsen biara wɔ 2021 mu kɔɔ 19,695 yuan/ton wɔ September 23, 2024. Bere a wɔawie nnwumayɛbea ahorow no tumi a wɔde bɛyɛ adwuma no ne nnwumakuw atitiriw a wɔde bɛka abom na wɔaka abom no, wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ mfaso a ɛwɔ dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma so no bɛkɔ so asan aba, na wɔhwɛ kwan sɛ nnwuma no mu nsɛm no bɛkɔ so ayɛ adwuma.

Wɔ afe 2023 mu no, nnwuma a ɛboro kɛseɛ a wɔakyerɛ wɔ China dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwumayɛ mu no bɛnya sika a ɛyɛ yuan ɔpepepem 150.562 afiri wɔn adwuma titire no mu, a ɛyɛ bɛyɛ 13% wɔ nneɛma a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma no nyinaa boɔ mu, a ɛda so ara di akyi koraa wɔ wiase nyinaa a ɛyɛ 45%-50%. Abien - ne anomde a ɛyɛ abiɛsa a ɛyɛ abien no na ɛyɛ nea ɛsen biara. Mprempren, nea wɔde ma ne nea wɔhwehwɛ fi nkankyee a ɛyɛ abiɛsa no mu no kari pɛ titiriw. Wɔ afe 2022 mu no, China nneɛma a ɛyɛ abiɛsa no mu nneɛma a wɔyɛ no bɛyɛ nkankyee bɛyɛ ɔpepepem 31.05 , na nea wɔhwehwɛ no bɛyɛ nkankyee ɔpepepem 30.53. Esiane abusuabɔ a ɛyɛ den a ɛda nnwumakuw akɛse a wɔyɛ anonne ne wɔn a wɔde nneɛma ma ntam nti, dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho nhyehyɛe a edi kan no yɛ nea ɛyɛ den koraa. Wɔ adetɔfo nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ den ne nnwumayɛ nhyehyɛe a ɛyɛ den akyi no, sɛ wɔkyekyem pɛpɛɛpɛ a, adwumayɛbea a ɛwɔ adwumayɛbea abiɛsa no bo a ɛwɔ adwumayɛbea ahorow no mu no ada no adi sɛ ɛyɛ nea ɛyɛ den na ɛkɔ soro wɔ nnansa yi mfe mu.

Sɛ yɛhwɛ U.S. nneɛma a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwuma a, nkɔso a edi kan no yɛ ntɛmntɛm na mfaso a wonya no nyaa nkɔso wɔ nkabom ne nneɛma a wogyee akyi. Sɛnea Huafu Securities kyerɛ no, wɔ nkabom bere a edi kan (1990-2000) mu no, Crown nyaa aduan dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma pii, plastic a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho botae ahorow; Wɔ nkabom berɛ a ɛtɔ so mmienu (2000-2016) mu no, Boer hyɛɛ aseɛ maa nkabom ne nneɛma a wɔgyee no yɛɛ ntɛmntɛm, a wɔde wɔn ani sii mpɔtam hɔ aluminium can nnwumakuw so titire. Boer afe afe sika a wɔnyaeɛ no kɔɔ soro ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 6.4 firi afe 2016 kɔsi afe 2023, ɛboroo ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 4 a atwam no so, berɛ a Crown deɛ no ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu 5.5 firi afe 2016 kɔsi afe 2023 no kɔɔ soro firi ɔha mu nkyekyɛmu mmienu a atwam no. Bio nso, mfasoɔ a ɛfiri nnwuma mu nkabom mu no, Crown adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ a ɛwɔ hɔ no kɔɔ soro firii 8% kɔɔ 10% wɔ nkabom a ɛdi kan no mu, na Boer adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ a ɛwɔ hɔ nyinaa no kɔɔ soro firii 6% kɔɔ 9% wɔ nkabom a ɛtɔ so mmienu no mu.

Ne titiriw no, fa Boer sɛ nhwɛso, ne mfaso a ɛwɔ so nyinaa ne mfaso a ɛwɔ so no bɛyɛ 20% ne 5% wɔ mfe a atwam no mu. Wɔ afe 2023 mu no, Bohr Beverage Packaging no sika a wɔbɛnya no bɛyɛ U.S. dɔla ɔpepepem 11.32, na wɔanya sika no nyinaa na wɔanya mu kyɛfa 19.0% ne 5.1%, na Roe yɛ 19%. Bere a ROE a ɛwɔ ɔman no mu dade a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho akannifo no wɔ 6%-11% no, baabi kɛse wɔ hɔ a wobetumi anya nkɔso bere a wɔde toto Bohr ho no.

Huafu Securities kyerɛɛ sɛ wɔ fie nkabom a edi kan no akyi fi 2016 kosi 2019 no, abien no betumi de nkakrankakra ayɛ Baosteel Packaging, Auruijin, Cofco Packaging, abiɛsa akansi nhyehyɛe, nanso kyɛfa kwan a ɛda wɔn ho wɔn ho ntam no sua, sɛ equity acquisition for Cofco packaging awiei koraa no, nnwuma nhyehyɛe no bɛyɛ nea ɛda adi kɛse, nkɔso a ɛde mfaso ba wɔ nne a edi kan no mu. Wɔ afe 2023 mu no, Chinafoɔ dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho nnwumakuo akɛseɛ no adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ bɛyɛ 4% ne 7% ntam, a ɛte sɛ amannɔne nnwumakuo no adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ nyinaa ansa na wɔreyɛ nkabom no, berɛ a wɔ nkabom a ɛdi kan no akyi no, adwumayɛ mu mfasoɔ a ɛfiri dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma adwuma mu wɔ amannɔne nnwumakuo mu wɔ afe 2004 mu wɔ afe 2004 mu no bɛyɛ 9% ne 17%.Sɛ yɛhwɛ saa 2025 mfeɛ a wɔde yɛ dadeɛ a wɔde kyekyere nneɛma ho adwuma nyinaa .