Metal Packaging Industry Inflection Point esembera, amagoba g'amakolero gasuubirwa okugenda mu maaso n'okudda engulu .

Omulimu gw’okupakinga ebyuma gufunye okugaziya obusobozi obutasalako mu myaka egiyise n’amagoba agakendeera. Mu kiseera kino, obwetaavu bw’amakolero okugaziya okufulumya ebintu bunafuye nnyo. Olw’okumaliriza okuzimba obusobozi mu makolero, okutumbula okugatta n’okugatta n’okugula kkampuni ezikulembedde mu ggwanga, n’okukendeera kw’emiwendo gy’ebintu ebisookerwako, amagoba g’amakolero g’okupakinga ebyuma gasuubirwa okugenda mu maaso n’okudda engulu.

Mu kitundu ekisooka ekya 2024, wadde ng’okukula kw’enyingiza kwali kubi olw’obwetaavu bw’abaguzi obunafu okutwalira awamu, amagoba galongooka olw’emiwendo gy’ebintu ebisookerwako okugwa n’okulongoosa ensengeka y’obusobozi. Okugeza, omugatte gwa Auerijin mu kitundu ekisooka ekya 2024 gwali 17.82%, nga gulinnye ebitundu 1.88 ku buli 100 omwaka ku mwaka, okusinga olw’okukendeera kw’ebintu ebisookerwako. Bbeeyi ya tinplate mu kitundu ekisooka ekya 2024 yali 6,546 yuan/ton, n’egwa wansi ebitundu 4.7 ku buli 100 omwaka ku mwaka. Emiwendo gya aluminiyamu nagyo gyakka okuva ku ntikko ya 24,240 yuan/ton mu 2021 okutuuka ku 19,695 yuan/ton nga September 23, 2024. Olw’okumaliriza okuzimba obusobozi mu makolero n’okutumbula okugatta n’okugatta kkampuni enkulu, amagoba g’ebyuma ebipakinga ebyuma bisuubirwa okugenda mu maaso n’okudda engulu, era ekifo ky’amakolero mu makolero gasuubirwa okusasulwa ssente.

Mu mwaka gwa 2023, ebitongole waggulu ekiragiddwa obunene mu China’s Metal Packaging Industry bijja kutuuka ku nsimbi zonna awamu ezifuna obuwumbi 150.562 Yuan okuva mu bizinensi yaabwe enkulu, nga zikola ebitundu nga 13% ku muwendo gwonna ogw’ebifulumizibwa mu makolero g’okupakinga, nga gakyali mabega nnyo ku mutendera gw’ensi yonna ogwa 45%-50%. Ebipipa by’ebyokunywa bibiri - n’ebisatu bye byasinga okubeera n’ekitundu ekisinga obunene. Mu kiseera kino, obwetaavu n’obwetaavu bw’ebibbo by’ebitundu bisatu okusinga biba bya bbalansi. Mu mwaka gwa 2022, ebifulumizibwa mu China eby’ebibbo ebisatu bijja kuba bya buwumbi nga 31.05 , era obwetaavu bujja kuba buwumbi nga 30.53. Olw’enkolagana ey’obwegassi enywevu wakati wa kkampuni enkulu ez’ebyokunywa n’abagaba ebintu, enkola y’okupakinga ebyuma ekulembedde mu ngeri etali ya maanyi. Wansi w’enzimba ya bakasitoma ennywevu n’enkola y’amakolero, bbeeyi eya wakati eya bulijjo ey’ebitongole by’ebidomola eby’ebitundu bisatu eraga omuze gw’okutebenkera n’okulinnya mu myaka egiyise.

Okusinziira ku ndowooza y’amakolero g’okupakinga mu Amerika, okukulembera enkulaakulana eyangu era amagoba galongoose oluvannyuma lw’okugatta n’okugula ebintu. Okusinziira ku Huafu Securities, mu lawundi esooka ey’ekiseera ky’okugatta (1990-2000), Crown yafuna ebyuma ebiwerako ebipakiddwa mu mmere, ebiruubirirwa by’okupakinga obuveera; Mu lawundi eyookubiri ey’ekiseera ky’okugatta (2000-2016), Boer yatandika okwanguya sipiidi y’okugatta n’okugula ebintu, ng’okusinga bitunuulirwa kkampuni za Aluminiyamu eza aluminiyamu eza wano . Enyingiza ya Boer buli mwaka yatuuka ku bitundu 6.4 ku buli 100 okuva mu 2016 okutuuka mu 2023, okuva ku bitundu 4 ku buli 100 emabegako, ate Crown eya bitundu 5.5 ku buli 100 okuva mu 2016 okutuuka mu 2023 yalinnye okuva ku bitundu 2 ku buli 100 emabegako. Okugatta ku ekyo, okuganyulwa mu kunyweza amakolero, Crown’s operating profit margin center yalinnya okuva ku bitundu 8% okutuuka ku 10% mu luzannya olusooka olw’okugatta, era Boer okutwalira awamu amagoba g’emirimu galinnya okuva ku bitundu 6% okutuuka ku 9% mu luzannya olwokubiri olw’okugatta.

Okusingira ddala, twala Boer ng’ekyokulabirako, amagoba gaayo ag’omugatte n’amagoba amatuufu gali nga 20% ne 5% mu myaka egiyise. Mu mwaka gwa 2023, ssente za Bohr Beverage Packaging zigenda kuba za buwumbi bwa ddoola za Amerika 11.32, nga omugatte gw’ensimbi zonna awamu n’omugatte gwa 19.0% ne 5.1%, ne ROE ya 19%. Wadde nga ROE y’abakulembeze b’ebyuma ebipakiddwa mu maka eri mu bitundu 6%-11%, waliwo ekifo ekinene eky’okulongoosaamu bw’ogeraageranya ne BOHR.

Huafu Securities yalaga nti oluvannyuma lw’oluzannya olusooka olw’okugatta amaka okuva mu 2016 okutuuka mu 2019, bombi basobola amakolero mpolampola okukola Baosteel Packaging, Auruijin, COFCO packaging, enkola y’okuvuganya enkulu ssatu, naye ekituli ky’emigabo wakati wa buli omu kitono, singa obwenkanya okugula COFCO okupakinga okukka, enkola y’amakolero ejja kuba nnyo clear clear, okulongoosa okukulembera okukulembera okukulembera eddoboozi. In 2023, the operating profit margin of major Chinese metal packaging companies will be between 4% and 7%, which is similar to the overall operating profit margin of overseas companies before integration, while after the first round of integration, the operating profit margin of metal packaging business of overseas companies in 2004 will be between 9% and 12%, after the second round of integration, The operating margin of metal packaging business of overseas companies in 2023 will be between 9% and 17%.Okusinziira ku ndowooza eno emyaka 2025 egy’amakolero g’okupakinga ebyuma okutwaliza awamu .