Metal Packaging Industry Inflection Point Esemberera, Amagoba Mu Makolero Gasuubirwa Okugenda Mu Maaso

Omulimu gw’okupakinga ebyuma gubadde gugenda mu maaso n’okugaziwa kw’obusobozi mu myaka egiyise n’amagoba ne gakendeera. Mu kiseera kino, okwagala kw’ekitongole kino okugaziya okufulumya ebintu kunafuye nnyo. Olw’okumaliriza okuzimba obusobozi bw’amakolero, okutumbula okwegatta n’okugatta n’okugula kkampuni ezikulembedde mu ggwanga, n’ebbeeyi y’ebintu ebisookerwako okukka, amagoba g’amakolero g’okupakinga ebyuma gasuubirwa okugenda mu maaso n’okuddamu okutereera.

Mu kitundu ekisooka ekya 2024, wadde ng’enkulaakulana y’enyingiza yali mbi olw’obwetaavu bw’abaguzi okutwalira awamu obunafu, amagoba gatereera olw’emiwendo gy’ebintu ebisookerwako okukka n’okulongoosa ensengeka y’obusobozi. Okugeza, omugatte gwa Auerijin mu kitundu ekisooka ekya 2024 gwali 17.82%, nga gulinnye ebitundu 1.88 ku buli 100 okusinziira ku mwaka, okusinga olw’okukendeera kw’ebintu ebisookerwako. Bbeeyi ya tinplate eya wakati mu kitundu ekisooka ekya 2024 yali ya Yuan 6,546 buli ttani, ng’ekendedde ebitundu 4.7 ku buli 100 okusinziira ku mwaka. Emiwendo gya Aluminiyamu nagyo gyakka okuva ku ntikko ya Yuan 24,240/ttani mu 2021 okutuuka ku Yuan 19,695/ttani nga September 23, 2024. Olw’okumaliriza okuzimba obusobozi bw’amakolero n’okutumbula okwegatta n’okugatta kkampuni enkulu, amagoba g’amakolero g’okupakinga ebyuma gasuubirwa okugenda mu maaso n’okuddamu okutereera, era ekifo ky’ebbeeyi y’ebintu mu mulimu guno kisuubirwa okulinnya okwanguya.

Mu mwaka gwa 2023, amakolero agasukkulumye ku sayizi eyalagirwa mu makolero g’okupakinga ebyuma mu China gajja kutuuka ku nsimbi zonna awamu obuwumbi bwa Yuan 150.562 okuva mu bizinensi yaabwe enkulu, nga zino zikola ebitundu nga 13% ku muwendo gwonna ogufulumizibwa mu mulimu gw’okupakinga, nga gikyali mabega nnyo ku mutendera gw’ensi yonna ogwa 45%-50%. Ebidomola by’ebyokunywa ebirimu ebitundu bibiri - n’bisatu bye byasinga obungi. Mu kiseera kino, obwetaavu n’obwetaavu bw’ebibbo eby’ebitundu bisatu okusinga biba bya bbalansi. Mu mwaka gwa 2022, ebifulumizibwa mu makolero ga China agakola ebidomola ebisatu bigenda kuba bya bidomola nga obuwumbi 31.05 , ate obwetaavu bugenda kuba nga obuwumbi nga 30.53. Olw’enkolagana ennywevu ey’obwegassi wakati wa kkampuni ennene ez’ebyokunywa n’abagaba ebyokunywa, enkola ekulembedde mu kupakinga ebyuma enywevu nnyo. Wansi w’ensengeka ya bakasitoma ennywevu n’enkola y’amakolero, bbeeyi ya wakati ey’ebweru w’amakolero ey’ebitongole ebikola ebidomola bisatu eraga omuze gw’okutebenkera n’okulinnya mu myaka egiyise.

Okusinziira ku ndowooza y’amakolero g’okupakinga mu Amerika, okukula okukulembera kwayanguwa era amagoba ne gatereera oluvannyuma lw’okugatta n’okugula ebintu. Okusinziira ku Huafu Securities, mu lawundi esooka ey’ekiseera ky’okugatta (1990-2000), Crown yafuna ebiruubirirwa by’okupakinga ebyuma by’emmere ebiwerako, ebiruubirirwa by’okusiba obuveera; Mu kiseera eky’okubiri eky’okugatta (2000-2016), Boer yatandika okwanguya sipiidi y’okugatta n’okugula ebintu, ng’okusinga etunuuliddwa kkampuni za wano ezikola ebidomola bya aluminiyamu . Enkula ya Boer buli mwaka yatuuka ku bitundu 6.4 ku buli 100 okuva mu 2016 okutuuka mu 2023, okuva ku bitundu 4 ku 100 emabegako, ate Crown eya 5.5 ku 100 okuva mu 2016 okutuuka mu 2023 yalinnye okuva ku bitundu 2 ku 100 emabegako. Okugatta ku ekyo, nga tuganyulwa mu kugatta amakolero, ekifo kya Crown eky’amagoba mu mirimu kyalinnya okuva ku bitundu 8% okutuuka ku bitundu 10% mu lawundi esooka ey’okugatta, ate ekifo kya Boer okutwalira awamu eky’amagoba mu mirimu kyalinnya okuva ku bitundu 6% okutuuka ku bitundu 9% mu lawundi eyookubiri ey’okugatta.

Okusingira ddala, twala Boer ng’ekyokulabirako, amagoba gaayo gonna n’amagoba amatuufu wakati biri nga 20% ne 5% mu myaka egiyise. Mu mwaka gwa 2023, ssente za Bohr beverage packaging zigenda kuba za buwumbi bwa ddoola za Amerika 11.32, nga gross margin ne net margin ya 19.0% ne 5.1%, ate ROE ya 19%. Nga ROE y’abakulembeze b’okupakinga ebyuma mu ggwanga eri mu bitundu 6%-11%, waliwo ekifo ekinene eky’okulongoosaamu bw’ogeraageranya ne Bohr.

Huafu Securities yalaze nti oluvannyuma lw’oluzannya olusooka olw’okugatta abantu mu ggwanga okuva mu 2016 okutuuka mu 2019, bombi basobola amakolero gaakola mpolampola Baosteel packaging, Auruijin, COfCO packaging, ssatu main competition pattern, naye ekituli ky’emigabo wakati wa buli omu kitono, singa equity acquisition for COfCO packaging finally landing, the industry pattern will be more clear, the improvement of the leading eddoboozi, eriyamba okukula kw’amagoba. Mu mwaka gwa 2023, amagoba mu mirimu gya kkampuni ennene ez’okupakinga ebyuma mu China gajja kuba wakati wa bitundu 4% ne 7%, ekifaananako n’amagoba okutwalira awamu agakolebwa kkampuni z’ebweru w’eggwanga nga tegannaba kwegatta, ate oluvannyuma lw’oluzannya olusooka olw’okugatta, amagoba mu mirimu gya bizinensi y’okupakinga ebyuma mu kkampuni z’ebweru mu 2004 gajja kuba wakati wa bitundu 9% ne 12%, oluvannyuma lw’oluzannya olwokubiri olw’okugatta, The operating margin wa bizinensi y’okupakinga ebyuma eya kkampuni z’ebweru w’eggwanga mu 2023 ejja kuba wakati wa 9% ne 17%.Okusinziira ku ndowooza eno emyaka 2025 egy’amakolero g’okupakinga ebyuma okutwaliza awamu