Metal Packaging Industry Inflection Point bɛ ka surunya, Industri tɔnɔw bɛna taa a fɛ ka segin u cogo kɔrɔ la

Nɛgɛdaga dilanni baarakɛlaw ye seko ni dɔnko bonya ka taa a fɛ san damadɔ tɛmɛnenw kɔnɔ ani tɔnɔw dɔgɔyali. Sisan, o baara in ka laɲini ka dɔ fara sɛnɛfɛnw dilanni kan, o barika dɔgɔyara kosɛbɛ. Ni izini seko ni dɔnko jɔli dafara, ni jamana kɔnɔ tɔnba ɲɛmɔgɔw ka jɛkafɔ ni u farali n’u sɔrɔli yiriwali ye, ani fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw sɔngɔ dɔgɔyali, nɛgɛ foroko baarakɛlaw ka tɔnɔ sɔrɔta bɛna taa a fɛ ka segin a cogo kɔrɔ la.

San 2024 tilancɛ fɔlɔ la, hali ni sɔrɔ yiriwali ma ɲɛ k’a sababu kɛ feerekɛlaw ka ɲininiw bɛɛ lajɛlen dɔgɔyali ye, nafa sɔrɔli ɲɛnabɔra ka da fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw sɔngɔ dɔgɔyali kan ani seko ni dɔnko labɛncogo ɲuman kan. Misali la, Auerijin ka nafolo sɔrɔta san 2024 tilancɛ fɔlɔ la, o kɛra 17,82% ye, o ye kɛmɛsarada la 1,88 ye san o san, kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la, k’a sababu kɛ fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw dɔgɔyali ye. Tinpla sɔngɔ hakɛ cayalenba san 2024 tilancɛ fɔlɔ la, o kɛra yuan 6546 ye tɔni kelen kɔnɔ, o jigira ni kɛmɛsarada la 4,7 ye san o san. Aluminiyɔmu sɔngɔ fana jigira ka bɔ a dankan na min tun ye 24.240 yuan/ton ye san 2021 ka se 19.695 yuan/ton ma sɛtanburukalo tile 23 san 2024. Ni izini seko ni dɔnko jɔli dafara ani ka tɔnba kuntigiw ka jɛkafɔ n’u farali yiriwa, a jirala ko nɛgɛ pakew dilanni tɔn ka tɔnɔ sɔrɔta bɛna taa ɲɛ, wa a jirala ko izini in ka nafolosɔrɔyɔrɔ bɛna se ka segin a cogo kɔrɔ la teliya la.

San 2023, baarakɛda minnu ka ca ni hakɛ dantigɛlen ye Sinuwa nɛgɛso dilanni na, olu bɛna sɔrɔ bɛɛ lajɛlen sɔrɔ min ye yuan miliyari 150,562 ye ka bɔ u ka jago kunba la, o bɛ kɛ 13% ɲɔgɔn ye pakew dilanni nafa bɛɛ lajɛlen nafa la, o min bɛ kɔfɛ kosɛbɛ hali bi diɲɛ ta la, n’o ye 45%-50% ye. Minfɛn bidon fila - ani saba de kɛra o hakɛ cayalenba ye. Sisan, bidon saba sɔrɔli ni u ɲinini bɛ bɛn ɲɔgɔn ma kosɛbɛ. San 2022, Sinuwa jamana ka bidon saba-sɛnɛko bɛna kɛ bidon miliyari 31,05 ɲɔgɔn ye , wa a ɲinini bɛna kɛ bidon miliyari 30,53 ɲɔgɔn ye. K’a sababu kɛ jɛ-ka-baara sabatili ye minfɛnko tɔnbaw ni feerekɛlaw cɛ, nɛgɛdaga ɲɛmɔgɔya taabolo sabatilen don kosɛbɛ. Kunnafoni sabatilenw ka kiliyanw sigicogo n’u ka izini cogoya kɔfɛ, izini kɔfɛ, bidon saba bɛ se ka sɔngɔ min sɔrɔ, o ye sabatili ni wulicogo jira nin san laban ninnu na.

Ameriki pakew dilanni baarakɛlaw ka jate la, ɲɛmɔgɔya yiriwali teliyalen don ani nafa sɔrɔli ɲɛnabɔra jɛkuluw ni ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔli kɔfɛ. Huafu Securities ka fɔ la, jɛ-ka-baara waati fɔlɔ la (1990-2000), Crown ye dumuni nɛgɛ foroko damadɔ sɔrɔ, plastiki foroko laɲiniw ; Jɛɲɔgɔnya waati filanan na (2000-2016), Boer y’a daminɛ ka jɛkafɔ ni fɛnw sɔrɔli teliya, kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la, a ɲɛsinnen bɛ sigida aliminiyɔmu bidon tɔnw ma. Boer ka san sɔrɔta bonya sera kɛmɛsarada la 6,4 ma k’a ta san 2016 la ka se san 2023 ma, o cayara ka bɔ kɛmɛsarada la 4 la ka tɛmɛn, ka sɔrɔ Crown ka kɛmɛsarada la 5,5 bɔra san 2016 la ka se san 2023 ma, o cayara ka bɔ kɛmɛsarada la 2 la ka tɛmɛ. Ka fara o kan, ka nafa sɔrɔ iziniw ka jɛkafɔ la, Crown ka baarakɛnafolo sɔrɔyɔrɔba cayara ka bɔ 8% na ka se 10% ma jɛkafɔ fɔlɔ la, ani Boer ka baarakɛta tɔnɔ sɔrɔyɔrɔ bɛɛ lajɛlen cayara ka bɔ 6% na ka se 9% ma jɛkafɔ taabolo filanan na.

Kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la, an ka Boer ta misali la, a ka tɔnɔ sɔrɔta bɛɛ lajɛlen ni a ka tɔnɔ sɔrɔta cɛmancɛ bɛ 20% ni 5% ɲɔgɔn bɔ san laban ninnu na. San 2023, Bohr minfɛnw foroko ka sɔrɔ bɛna kɛ Ameriki dɔrɔmɛ miliyari 11,32 ye, ni sɔrɔba ni sɔrɔ jɛlen ye 19,0% ani 5,1% ye, ani ROE bɛna kɛ 19% ye. Hali ni jamana kɔnɔ nɛgɛ foroko ɲɛmɔgɔw ka ROE bɛ 6%-11% cɛ, ɲɛtaa yɔrɔba bɛ yen n’i y’a suma ni Bohr ye.

Huafu Securities y’a jira ko jamana kɔnɔ jɛkafɔ fɔlɔ kɔfɛ k’a ta san 2016 la ka se san 2019 ma, o fila bɛ se ka izini sigi dɔɔnin dɔɔnin Baosteel pakew, Auruijin, COfCO pakew, saba kunbabaw ɲɔgɔndan cogoya, nka jatebɔ danfara min bɛ ɲɔgɔn ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ, o ka dɔgɔ, ni bɛnkan sɔrɔli COfCO pakew labanna ka jigin, izini cogoya bɛna jɛya ka tɛmɛ, ɲɛmɔgɔyaso ɲɛtaa bɛna jɛya kan, min bɛ tɔnɔ bonya dɛmɛ. San 2023, Sinuwa nɛgɛsobonbaw ka baara tɔnɔ bɛna kɛ 4% ni 7% cɛ, o bɛ tali kɛ jamana kɔkan tɔnw ka baarakɛ tɔnɔ bɛɛ lajɛlen na ka kɔn jɛkafɔ ɲɛ, k’a sɔrɔ jɛkafɔ fɔlɔ kɔfɛ, jamana kɔkan tɔnw ka nɛgɛ foroko jago baara tɔnɔ sɔrɔta san 2004 kɔnɔ, o bɛna kɛ 9% ni 12% cɛ, jɛkafɔ taabolo filanan kɔfɛ, The operating margin ka nɛgɛ pake jago la jamana kɔkan tɔnw ka san 2023 bɛna kɛ 9% ni 17% cɛ.Ka bɔ nin siratigɛ la san 2025 nɛgɛ pake baara bɛɛ lajɛlen na