Barta Is-rog-rogista Warshadaha Baakadaha Biraha ayaa soo dhow, faa'iidooyinka warshadaha ayaa la filayaa inay sii wadaan soo kabashada

Warshadaha baakadaha birta waxay la kulmeen balaadhin joogto ah oo awoodeed dhowrkii sano ee la soo dhaafay iyo hoos u dhac ku yimid faa'iidada. Waqtigan xaadirka ah, rabitaanka warshadaha si ay u ballaariyaan wax soo saarka ayaa si weyn u daciifay. Marka la dhammeeyo dhismaha awoodda warshadaha, kor u qaadista is-dhexgalka iyo isku-dhafka iyo iibsashada shirkadaha hormuudka ah ee gudaha, iyo hoos u dhaca qiimaha alaabta ceeriin, faa'iidada faa'iidada warshadaha baakadaha birta ayaa la filayaa inay sii socoto soo kabashada.

Qeybtii hore ee 2024, in kasta oo kobaca dakhligu uu liitay sababtoo ah guud ahaan baahida macaamiisha daciifka ah, faa'iidada ayaa soo hagaagtay sababtoo ah qiimaha alaabta ceeriin oo hoos u dhacay iyo wanaajinta qaabka awoodda. Tusaale ahaan, xadka guud ee Auerijin qeybtii hore ee 2024 wuxuu ahaa 17.82%, ilaa 1.88 dhibcood sanadba sanadka ka dambeeya, inta badan waxaa ugu wacan hoos u dhaca alaabta ceeriin. Celceliska qiimaha tinplate ee qaybta hore ee 2024 wuxuu ahaa 6,546 yuan/ton, hoos u dhac boqolkiiba 4.7 ah sanad kasta. Qiimaha aluminiumku wuxuu sidoo kale hoos uga dhacay heerka ugu sarreeya ee 24,240 yuan / ton ee 2021 ilaa 19,695 yuan / ton bishii Sebtembar 23, 2024. Iyadoo dhamaystirka dhismaha awoodda warshadaha iyo horumarinta isdhexgalka iyo isku-dhafka shirkadaha madaxa, faa'iidada faa'iidada baakadaha birta ah ayaa la filayaa inay sii wado soo kabashada, iyo dardargelinta warshadaha.

Sannadka 2023, shirkadaha ka sarreeya cabbirka loo qoondeeyay ee warshadaha baakadaha birta ee Shiinaha waxay gaari doonaan wadarta dakhliga 150.562 bilyan yuan ganacsigooda ugu weyn, oo xisaabiya 13% wadarta qiimaha wax soo saarka ee warshadaha baakadaha, kaas oo weli ka dambeeya heerka caalamiga ah ee 45% -50%. Laba iyo saddex qaybood oo daasadaha cabitaanka ah ayaa lagu tiriyaa saamiga ugu sarreeya. Waqtigan xaadirka ah, sahayda iyo baahida gasacadaha saddexda qaybood ah ayaa asal ahaan isku dheeli tiran. 2022, wax soo saarka Shiinaha ee saddexda qaybood ee warshadaha kara waxay noqon doontaa ilaa 31.05 bilyan gasacadaha , iyo baahida waxay noqon doontaa ilaa 30.53 bilyan gasacadaha. Xidhiidhka wada shaqayneed ee xasilloon ee ka dhexeeya shirkadaha waaweyn ee cabitaanka iyo alaab-qeybiyeyaasha awgeed, qaabka ugu horreeya ee baakadaha birta ayaa ah mid deggan. Marka la eego asalka qaab dhismeedka macaamiisha deggan iyo qaabka warshadaha, celceliska qiimaha warshaddii hore ee saddex qaybood oo ganacsi ah ayaa muujisay isbeddel xasilloon iyo kor u kaca sannadihii la soo dhaafay.

Marka loo eego dhinaca warshadaha baakadaha Maraykanka, kobaca hogaaminaya waa la dardargeliyay iyo faa'iidada ayaa hagaagtay kadib isku darka iyo iibsiga. Sida laga soo xigtay Huafu Securities, wareegii koowaad ee xilliga isdhexgalka (1990-2000), Crown waxa uu helay tiro baakadaha birta ah ee cuntada ah, bartilmaameedyada baakadaha caagga ah; Wareegii labaad ee xilliga isdhexgalka (2000-2016), Boer wuxuu bilaabay inuu dardargeliyo xawaaraha isku darka iyo iibsiga, inta badan waxaa lagu bartilmaameedsadaa aluminium maxaliga ah. shirkadaha Kobaca dakhliga sanadlaha ah ee Boer waxa uu gaadhay 6.4 boqolkiiba 2016 ilaa 2023, ilaa 4 boqolkiiba hore, halka Crown’s 5.5 boqolkiiba 2016 ilaa 2023 uu ka ahaa 2 boqolkiiba ka hor. Intaa waxaa dheer, ka faa'iidaysiga isku dhafka warshadaha, Xarunta faa'iidada hawlgelinta ee Crown waxay kordheen min 8% ilaa 10% wareegii koowaad ee isugaynta, iyo guud ahaan xarunta faa'iidada hawlgelinta ee Boer waxay ka korodhay 6% ilaa 9% wareegii labaad ee xoojinta.

Gaar ahaan, u soo qaado Boer tusaale ahaan, faa'iidada guud ee faa'iidada iyo xarumaheeda saafiga ah waxay ku dhow yihiin 20% iyo 5% siday u kala horreeyaan. Sannadka 2023, Dakhliga Baakadaha Cabitaanada Bohr waxa uu noqonayaa 11.32 Bilyan oo Doollarka Mareykanka ah, iyadoo wadarta guud iyo margin saafiga ah ay kala yihiin 19.0% iyo 5.1% siday u kala horreeyaan, iyo ROE ee 19%. Iyadoo ROE ee hoggaamiyeyaasha baakadaha birta ee gudaha ay ku jiraan inta u dhaxaysa 6% -11%, waxaa jira qol weyn oo lagu horumarinayo marka la barbar dhigo Bohr.

Huafu Securities ayaa tilmaamay in ka dib wareegii koowaad ee isdhexgalka gudaha laga bilaabo 2016 ilaa 2019, labaduba waxay si tartiib tartiib ah u sameysan karaan baakadaha Baosteel, Auruijin, COfCO baakadaha, seddex qaab oo tartan ah, laakiin farqiga u dhexeeya midba midka kale waa mid yar, haddii helitaanka sinnaanta ee baakadaha COfCO, ugu dambeyntii hagaajinta codka, warshadaha ayaa noqon doona mid aad u fiican oo faa'iido leh. koritaanka. 2023, faa'iidada hawlgalka ee shirkadaha waaweyn ee baakadaha birta ee Shiinaha waxay noqon doontaa inta u dhaxaysa 4% iyo 7%, taas oo la mid ah guud ahaan faa'iidada hawlgelinta ee shirkadaha dibadda ka hor inta aan la isku darin, halka ka dib wareegii koowaad ee isdhexgalka, faa'iidada faa'iidada hawlgalka ee ganacsiga baakadaha biraha ee shirkadaha dibadda ee 2004 waxay noqon doontaa inta u dhaxaysa 9% iyo 12% ganacsiga ganacsiga ka dib, wareegga labaad ee ganacsiga. Shirkadaha dibadda ee 2023 waxay noqon doonaan inta u dhaxaysa 9% iyo 17% marka laga eego aragtidan 2025 sano ee warshadaha baakadaha birta guud ahaan